The previous year was a massive success for AI, with the technology transitioning from niche to mainstream status. However, 2024 will be the year when the hype collides with reality as people grapple with the capabilities and limitations of AI on a larger scale. Here are a few ways we anticipate this unfolding.
OpenAI becomes a product company. Following a leadership shake-up in November, OpenAI is expected to undergo significant changes. With Sam Altman taking a more prominent role, the company will likely adopt a “ship it” mindset. The GPT store, originally scheduled to launch in December, will be aggressively promoted as the go-to platform for AI tools and resources. Other major companies with AI efforts will also follow suit, including Gemini/Bard, which is expected to integrate with various Google products. However, OpenAI’s transformation will likely be more pronounced due to a shift from academic reserve to a more market-centric approach.
Agents, generated video, and music evolve from experimental to practical. AI applications such as agent-based models and generative multimedia will expand beyond experimental status in 2024. Agent-based models will demonstrate their potential in streamlining tedious processes, while video and audio generation will find application in creative endeavors. Despite their limitations, these AI tools will gradually find their niche in diverse industries.
Limits of monolithic LLMs become evident. Large language models (LLMs) have shown tremendous capabilities, but their limitations will become more apparent in 2024. Research will shed light on the emergent capabilities of LLMs, revealing potential shortcomings and the diminishing returns of increasing parameter counts. This will lead to a shift towards more efficient and manageable models, such as a mixture of smaller, more specific models.
Marketing meets reality. The exaggerated claims made in 2023 will be scrutinized as companies assess the actual benefits and drawbacks of AI tools. Many AI systems will struggle to live up to their initial promises, leading to customer dissatisfaction and withdrawals. This will likely result in a round of consolidation as weaker players are absorbed or phased out.
Apple enters the AI space. Apple is poised to introduce its refined take on AI, leveraging user data to deliver practical applications. The company’s strategic timing and focus on user-centric AI integration may set a new standard in the industry. Although Apple’s AI may not delve into media generation, it is expected to offer impressive agent capabilities.
Legal cases and regulations. Lawsuits and regulatory action in the AI industry will continue to evolve, with companies facing legal challenges related to misuse of AI technology. While new regulations may reshape the industry, their impact may not be immediately felt. The E.U.’s AI Act and other regulations will prompt investments in AI compliance while federal regulation in the U.S. may lag behind due to other political distractions.
The 2024 election and AI. The 2024 election in the U.S. is expected to be tumultuous, potentially overshadowing progress in AI legislation. The political climate may delay substantive federal regulation in the AI industry, impacting the pace of industry evolution.
In summary, 2024 is set to be a pivotal year for AI, marked by the transition from hype to reality, legal and regulatory developments, and the emergence of new players and trends in the industry.